How do China’s lockdown and post-COVID-19 stimuli impact carbon emissions and economic output? Retrospective estimates and prospective trajectories

This paper develops a multi-sector and multi-factor structural gravity model that allows an analytical and quantitative decomposition of the emission and output changes into composition and technique effects. We find that the negative production shock of China's containment policy propagates globally via supply chains, with the carbon-intensive sectors experiencing the greatest carbon emission shocks. We further reveal that China's current stimulus package in 2021-2025 is consistent with China's emission intensity-reduction goals for 2025, but further efforts are required to meet China's carbon emissions-peaking target in 2030 and Cancun 2°C goal. Short-term changes in carbon emissions resulting from lockdowns and initial fiscal stimuli in "economic rescue" period have minor long-term effects, whereas the transitional direction of future fiscal stimulus exerts more predominant impact on long-term carbon emissions. The efficiency improvement effects are more important than the sectoral structure effects of the fiscal stimulus in achieving greener economic growth. [Abstract copyright: © 2022 The Author(s).

Enlarging Regional Disparities in Energy Intensity within China

As energy saving and emission reduction become a global action, the disparity in energy intensity between different regions is a new rising problem that stems a country's or region's energy-saving potential. Here we collect China's provincial panel data (1995–2017) of primary and final energy consumption to evaluate China's unequal and polarized regional pattern in energy intensity, decompose the inequality index into contributing components, and investigate possible driving factors behind the unequal pattern both regionally and structurally, for the first time. The results show that China's interprovince disparities in energy intensity increase and are exacerbated by the enlarging disparities in energy intensity between the least developed and most developed regions of China. The causes for this phenomenon are as follows: (i) rather loose regulatory measures on mitigating coal consumption; (ii) inferior energy processing technology in areas specializing in energy-intensive industries; (iii) increasing interregional energy fluxes embodied in trade; and (iv) separate jurisdictions at provincial administrative levels. These factors can synthetically result in unintended spillover to areas with inferior green technologies, suggesting an increasingly uneven distribution of energy-intensive and carbon-intensive industries and usage of clean energy. The results reveal the necessities of regional coordination and cooperation to achieve a green economy

Quantitative analysis of movement along an earthquake thrust scarp: a case study of a vertical exposure of the 1999 surface rupture of the Chelungpu fault at Wufeng, Western Taiwan

A vertical exposure across the principal thrust scarp of the 1999 Mw 7.6 earthquake allows quantification of fault slip. The exposure is located on the active Chelungpu fault near Wufeng, along the range front of the fold-and-thrust belt in western Taiwan. The 1999 surface ruptures at the Wufeng site are characterized by a west-facing 2 to 3 m high principal thrust scarp and an east-facing lesser backthrust scarp. We mapped a 15 m-long, 5 m-deep exposure across the principal thrust scarp and characterized complex deformation structures, which include a main basal thrust fault, a wedge thrust, and a pop-up anticlinal fold with two secondary opposing thrust faults. The vertical displacement across the principal thrust scarp is measured directly from the offsets of the same sedimentary horizons between the hangingwall and the footwall. The average vertical displacement is 2.2±0.1 m, and the maximum displacement is 2.5 m, at the crest of the small pop-up fold. Horizontal displacement estimates were determined using line- and area-balancing methods. With line-length methods we estimated a horizontal displacement of 3.3±0.3 m across the principal scarp for four sedimentary horizons. For area balancing, first we selected three horizontal soil/sand deposits with a total thickness of about 0.5 m. The estimate yields an average horizontal displacement of 4.8±1.0 m. Using these individual and relatively thin stratigraphic layers yielded significant standard deviations in displacement estimates as a result of thickness variations. Second, we used the 3 m-thick overbank soil/sand and the lower part of fluvial pebble/cobble to calculate a horizontal displacement of 2.6±0.2 m with the area-balancing technique. According to the geometry of the dip angle (35–40°) of the basal thrust, the line-length measurement and the 3 m-thick package area balancing both provided reasonable results of horizontal displacement. By comparing the different deposits applied to the line- and area-balancing methods, we interpret that decoupling of deformation occurred between the lower fluvial gravels and the upper overbank sand and mud deposits. Due to lesser confining pressure at the surface, additional deformation occurred in the upper 1–2 m thick overbank deposits. This additional deformation yielded further vertical uplift of 0.3–0.5 m and horizontal displacement of 0.2–0.8 m around the core of the pop-up fold. Our work suggests that determination of slip across surface thrust ruptures varies as a function of the mechanical behavior of young late Quaternary deposits

Reply to “Comment on ‘A Vertical Exposure of the 1999 Surface Rupture of the Chelungpu Fault at Wufeng, Western Taiwan: Structural and Paleoseismic Implications for an Active Thrust Fault,’ by Jian-Cheng Lee, Yue-Gau Chen, Kerry Sieh, Karl Mueller, Wen-Shan Chen, Hao-Tsu Chu, Yu-Chang Chan, Charles Rubin, and Robert Yeats,” by Yuan-Hsi Lee, Shih-Ting Lu, Tung-Sheng Shih, and Wei-Yu Wu

We welcome Y. H. Lee et al.'s interest in our article (Lee et al., 2001). We thank them for their comment, which provides a further opportunity for discussing the quantification of the slip amounts including horizontal and vertical components and the fault geometry for an earthquake thrust scarp in Wufeng, western Taiwan, during the 1999 M 7.6 earthquake. In their comment, Y. H. Lee et al. used restoration of deformed concrete fence across the 1999 scarp to estimate the slip vector of the main fault. The estimated slip amount, especially the horizontal component, is different (significantly less) from our results presented in the 2001 BSSA article. They then applied an “area-balance” technique to compare their results with ours. They showed that their area-balance method favored their estimates including the slip amounts and the fault dip angle. They concluded that their estimated slip amounts are more reasonable than ours. The fundamental questions in this issue, in our opinions, include the actual amounts of deformation (slip) and the associated deformation processes, as well as the limitation and uncertainty of the applied techniques on an earthquake-formed thrust scarp. Hereafter we attempt to answer these questions and clarify the related problems

SARS in Hospital Emergency Room

Thirty-one cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) occurred after exposure in the emergency room at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The index patient was linked to an outbreak at a nearby municipal hospital. Three clusters were identified over a 3-week period. The first cluster (5 patients) and the second cluster (14 patients) occurred among patients, family members, and nursing aids. The third cluster (12 patients) occurred exclusively among healthcare workers. Six healthcare workers had close contact with SARS patients. Six others, with different working patterns, indicated that they did not have contact with a SARS patient. Environmental surveys found 9 of 119 samples of inanimate objects to be positive for SARS coronavirus RNA. These observations indicate that although transmission by direct contact with known SARS patients was responsible for most cases, environmental contamination with the SARS coronavirus may have lead to infection among healthcare workers without documented contact with known hospitalized SARS patients